Wednesday, April 22, 2015

Plan B, cont.



Iran's march to regional domination is in the news again, as it will be for the foreseeable future. 

Yemen's government crumbled and dissolved into nothingness in January, four months after President Obama touted Yemen as an example of the success of his foreign policy.  Yemen has been in a Hobbesian state of war of all against all since then.

The Yemeni government was reasonably friendly to the US.  Not satisfied with the removal of US influence, Iran is attempting to ensure that Yemen becomes an Iranian puppet state.  A shipment of Iranian arms destined for the Houthis (Iran's allies in Yemen) is on its way.



A prior post examined the disaster that has resulted from having no Plan B in the negotiations with Iran over Iran's nuclear weapons program.  We still have no Plan B there, so even though Iran is actively pursuing military options against US interests in the Middle East (we've been assisting the Saudis in their military actions against Iran's Yemeni allies), we're not even going to pause negotiations.  White House spokesman Josh Earnest:  Iran's intervention "is not a reason to break up those negotiations — in fact, it is a very strong incentive for those negotiations to succeed."  Most experienced negotiators do not take threats, violence or other bad behavior as a reason to come to agreement.  The proper response to someone pounding the table across from you is not to agree with him in the hope that he'll stop the scary noises.  The proper response is to call his bluff.  But our negotiators seem invincible to experience.

On Sunday, the US diverted warships to the Yemeni coast.  Maybe we did learn how to call a bluff?  No.  Since Sunday, there have been a series of statements from the Obama administration, including Obama himself, that could not be better crafted to communicate confusion, weakness and irrelevance.

After his Press Secretary told reporters that the United States "is serious about the Iranians not providing weapons to the Houthis," President Obama said these words to Chris Mathews in an interview on MSNBC:


"Right now their ships are in international waters.  There’s a reason why we keep some of our ships in the Persian Gulf region and that is to make sure we maintain freedom of navigation. And what we’ve said to them is if there are weapons delivered to factions within Yemen that could threaten navigation, that’s a problem."

Let that sink in.  There's a UN resolution prohibiting anyone from arming the Houthis.  The White House Press Secretary has reiterated that we're serious about preventing Iran from arming the Houthis.  So to ensure that everyone understand our intentions, President Obama says that we're concerned with the shipping lanes.  If Mathews wasn't distracted by his tingling leg, perhaps he would have thought to ask what problem a weapons shipment could possibly create for maritime navigation.

Mr. President, there is no problem with the shipping lanes.  None.  The idea that weapons being delivered to Yemen could "threaten navigation" is intentional idiocy.  The weapons are to be used in Yemen, against our allies.  It's as if the FBI set up armed surveillance of a gun trafficking operation in a Walmart parking lot, for the sole purpose of ensuring that the traffickers didn't use any of the handicapped parking spaces.

For its part, the State Department wants to make sure we all understand that US warships aren't going to do anything, you know, warlike.  Spokeswoman Marie Harf:  "I want to be very clear just so that no one has the wrong impression. They are not there to intercept Iranian ships.  The purpose of moving them is only to ensure that the shipping lanes remain open and safe."

This is impossible to parody.  We're sending our warships toward an Iranian shipment of weapons, not to intercept those weapons, but to make sure they reach their destination safely. 


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